Voting trends

The average number of votes in Round 1 was 1580. The average vote total excluding the first 20 matchups (all below 300 votes each) was 3904. The low was 20 (Dolph/Kearny play-in game), while the high was the Captain McAllister/Sideshow Mel matchup at 5528. The number of votes increased from one match to the next 22 out of 32 times. The vote total decreased from one match to the next seven times, and stayed essentially the same three times. The largest one-day vote increase was from 6/5 to 6/6, when the voting increased from 258 (Otto vs. Scratchy) to 2535 (Martin vs. Kirk Van Houten) -- a whopping 883% increase. The biggest drop was the Nelson Muntz-Miss Hoover matchup, whose 3398 votes was 37% below the previous matchup, Grampa vs. Bleeding Gums (at 5405, the second-highest total of the round). The average margin of victory was a commanding 52%, though this varied from a high of 97% (Groundskeeper Willy's merciless 74-1 beating of Todd Flanders) to a mere 2% (Kent Brockman's narrow 2246-2178 avoidance of an upset at the hands of Bumblebee Man).

Breaking down the bracket further, we discover some interesting trends:

1. You need to be human to advance. All five non-human entries -- Santa's Little Helper, Itchy, Scratchy, Poochie, Kang & Kodos -- lost in the first round.

2. You need to be male to advance. All eight females were booted -- Helen Lovejoy, Luanne Van Houten, Selma Bouvier, Patty Bouvier, Agnes Skinner, Edna Krabappel, Maude Flanders and Miss Hoover, smell you later.

3. The bracket disfavors the devout Christian. Ned Flanders was the only participant with strong Christian beliefs to move to the second round. Maude, Rod, Todd, Reverend and Helen, you've been called home. Notice Jews (Krusty) and miscellaneous (Apu, Moe the snake handler) were unaffected by this trend.

4. The children are our future. Winning four of nine first-round matchups, kids did well. Ralph, Milhouse, Nelson and Martin moved on, while Jimbo, Uter and Kearny joined Rod and Todd in the discard pile. (Dolph lost in the play-in game, but for the sake of this comparison we're not counting it.)

5. Senior citizens also fared quite well. Montgomery Burns, Abe Simpson and Jasper are still alive. But this category gets a little hazy after that...Hans Moleman looks like an old man, but his driver's license says he's 31. And Ned Flanders has the energy of a 35-year-old but he's 60. So the rule should extend to those old in appearance and in reality.

So do these trends give us a glimpse into the future? Can they predict the winner of the tournament? Let's see...you need to be a non-churchgoing human male who is either very old or very young. Going by this formula, early Vegas lines have placed Montgomery Burns and Ralph Wiggum as favorites.