Voting trends

Average votes: 4245 The second round was amazingly stable (aside from some Hutz-Quimby fraud problems). After the second matchup, the average stayed between 4122 and 4359 for the entire round. Average margin of victory: 1558 This went up dramatically in the last few matchups, thanks to blowout victories by Barney, Willy, and Moe. Closest margin: 17 That's all that separated the corrupt Quimby from the corrupt Hutz (out of 1221 total votes cast). In non-corrupt matchups, the closest was the 79-vote margin in Dr. Nick's upset of Waylon Smithers. Widest margin: 3096 Moe over Hans, just edging out the 3054-vote beating Willy gave Hibbert and the 2978-vote thrashing of Carl by Chief Wiggum. Matchup to watch: No. 2 Wiggum vs. No. 3 Willy Willy has won his two matchups with margins of victory of 97% (Todd Flanders) and 69% (Hibbert), but will match up with Chief Wiggum, who has margins of victory of 91% (Helen Lovejoy) and 53% (Carl). Is this a case of the irresistible force meeting the immovable object?

Most tourney-watchers had predicted his second-round opponent Waylon Smithers as a dark-horse candidate for the Final Four, if not the outright championship. Alas, Dr. Nick was put in perhaps the worst possible region for a Cinderella run. Sentimental favorite Troy McClure stands between Nick and the Elite Eight -- what's a kind-hearted voter to do? Keep the upset wave rolling by voting for Nick, or honor the memory of Phil Hartman? Is Dr. Nick's support greater than any could have imagined, or will this quack meet his match in washed-up celebrity Troy McClure (who you might remember from such medical films as "Someone's in the Kitchen with DNA!")?

One thing we do know -- it pays to be a foreigner. Of the four second-round matchups with margins of victory greater than 60 percent (Groundskeeper Willy, Ralph Wiggum, Moe Szyslak, and Apu Nasapeemapetilon), three came from folks who hail from somewhere other than the United States. Does this suggest that foreigners have the edge into the Elite Eight? If so, look for upset victories by Willy (over No. 2 Clancy Wiggum) and Apu (over No. 1 Ned Flanders) in the next round.

It also doesn't hurt to be a member of the Wiggum family. The Chief and Ralph are the characters still alive that have a family connection.

What didn't help characters in the second round was intelligence. Springfield's intellectual elite took a collective kick to the crotch as Professor Frink, Martin, Principal Skinner and Dr. Hibbert were eliminated. It also didn't help if you were a burn-out (Otto), a delinquent (Nelson) or a slack-jawed yokel (Cletus).

So do these trends give us a glimpse into the future? Can they predict the winner of the tournament? Bookmakers are sticking by the earlier prediction of a Montgomery Burns-Ralph Wiggum final.